Online ratings model statistics (without robot games)

Please see the main tables for a detailed explanation of these tables, based on 29 700 games involving only human players. Note that in the absence of robot games, the ratings curve is even flatter still.

Modelled and observed win ratios by rating bracket and difference

[ c = hundred, Elo = predicted value, Avg = mean observed]

Diff Elo Avg  2c  3c  4c  5c  6c  7c  8c  9c 10c 11c 12c 13c 14c 15c 16c 17c 18c 19c 20c
 -8c 997 919                                             962
 -7c 993 880                                 890 949 895 822
 -6c 983 858                         872 888 877 802 905 836     814 811
 -5c 961 837                     949 898 805 847 827 861 789 728 795                 818
 -4c 921 794                 860 844 842 811 798 770 821 720 705 780 758 732 701 830 860
 -3c 855 713             754 713 730 738 720 716 709 697 701 635 623 735 711 743 770 750
 -2c 760 654         637 709 670 599 668 699 674 655 666 648 578 617 650 653 679 665 655
 -1c 638 582     568 628 517 568 570 589 598 610 595 584 570 572 553 584 604 609 593 549
  0c 500 500 492 516 497 493 516 470 491 516 509 484 507 490 513 487 505 509 502 484 518
  1c 361 417 380 415 464 421 452 409 395 407 389 411 444 413 445 420 392 405 392 450 568
  2c 239 345 324 283 349 380 320 311 322 315 341 376 433 377 326 352 325 306 357
  3c 144 286 205 282 277 258 277 287 294 281 342 317 340 306 284 246 231 269
  4c  78 205 141 119 178 175 208 209 217 255 260 238 268 210 283 213 141
  5c  38 162  30 121 135 175 168 163 183 263 206 188             140
  6c  16 141 117  94 156 172 163 144     214 161
  7c   6 119      76  71  94 185
  8c   2  80      38      32 104

Hundreds of games played by category

Diff Tot 2c 3c 4c 5c 6c 7c 8c 9c 10c 11c 12c 13c 14c 15c 16c 17c 18c 19c 20c -8c 4 1 -7c 5 1 1 1 1 -6c 8 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -5c 14 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 -4c 22 1 1 2 2 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 -3c 36 1 1 2 2 2 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 -2c 57 1 1 2 3 3 4 5 4 6 4 4 4 3 4 4 2 2 -1c 78 1 2 3 3 3 5 6 6 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 0c 84 1 2 2 3 4 4 6 5 6 8 6 7 6 4 5 4 5 4 3 1c 78 1 1 3 3 3 5 6 6 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 2 1 2c 57 1 1 2 3 3 4 5 4 6 4 4 4 3 4 4 2 2 3c 36 1 1 2 3 2 4 3 3 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 4c 22 1 1 1 2 3 2 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 5c 14 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 6c 8 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7c 5 1 1 1 1 8c 4 1 1 1