From: mhill@aqinc.com (Marlon Hill)
Date: Fri, 09 Jan 1998 12:44:58 -0500
Subject: Re: consensus game #1
Message-id: <3.0.32.19980109124458.0069a474@zero.aqinc.com>
At 02:05 AM 1/9/98 -0500, you wrote:
From the desk of G.I. Joelgernaut: Just wanted to say I liked what Alan Stern had to say about instinct for sound moves and strategy, and add that I believe those who tried to calculate probability of opponent having the -ING may have missed a key factor.
Again, more of a note to cgp...
if note is taken of Alan's 'gimme a break', I recall an incident wherein a GREAT player calced the probability of drawing a third I into his rack DURING a tourney game. Generally, I don't wish anyone ill, but anyone that does that (or anything like that) should draw every freaking I that is left. Play the damn game!
Those calcs were based on opponent having -ING immediately, but we aren't holding any of those three letters when we play de/ed-ify, which means chances are good that opponent will have at least two turns to beat us to that, and opp. will also be likely to improve his chances of collecting all three first by holding any of those three in his first rack, so if your calc stops after the first move, you're missing the boat. Sims will demonstrate this effect. Even if it sits open three or four moves, 48 points is almost a bingo, not your average play, so the danger is great enough not to offer it. In some situations, I'd probably even eschew a bingo in favor of taking that 48! G.I. Joelgernaut
This little soldier would make great players of you all. I 'clintoned' on this position because either option scores 32. I preferred the flex of the H to the F. (Drawing 5 to either leave is a crapshoot. too much to explain. Joel's mission might be to help yall, but I am now in the mood to crush your skulls). Note that I would DE instead of ED to create a value for the H. HYOID creates the value for the F without offering the 48 pt. extension that can bite you now or later.
Jeff W, your post is hilarious! Ima do that to Edley in Chicago!