From: Jerry & Eve Lerman <jerry_lerman@compuserve.com>
Date: Wed, 11 Feb 1998 23:48:13 -0500
Subject: Consultation Game - Introducing the Doubling Cube?
Message-id: <199802112349_MC2-32F9-F514@compuserve.com>

John, Missed the deadline last week, so I thought I'd better act sooner rather than later this week (after a LOT of good thought has been put on CGP, of course). =

I've read many of the opinions and I'm going to pick TUI at b5, as it leaves open the lines we'll need to come back, scores well, keeps a nice leave, doesn't turn over too many tiles (we'll let next turn's BINGO do =

that!), and milks a part of the board that might tend to go unnoticed otherwise. =

We have about 4 turns to make up a 30ish point difference (no matter what we play), but make that 50-60 points given that opponent plays again before we get to work on trimming it down. The longer our play, the sooner the game ends, so I'd prefer to avoid the long play, CATTIER.

We certainly need a bingo, and keeping TRAN will not hurt our chances of that. Assuming one 70ish point bingo NEXT turn, we will probably be up 15 or so, then again down 15 to 25 when we face our next play. Then we'll have 2-3 turns to make up this difference. That sounds possible, but will require luck, and retention of board possibilities, since we'll have to average 6-10 points more than our opponent on those last plays.

Here's a question for CGPers - if we were handed the "doubling cube" by our opponent, prior to making our move, would you accept it? Do you think our chances are still better than 1 in 4 to win this (ignoring the possibility of doubling back!)?

Jerry Lerman 1923

a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o

   -----------------------------      Player Tiles   Score Time
 1|=3D     '       =3D       '     =3D|1
 2|  -       "       F       -  |2    cgp    AINRTTU   198  ---
 3|    -     C U l L I O N S    |3    opp    -------   244  ---
 4|M     -       '   N   -     '|4
 5|A       C         E -        |5    Waiting for cgp to play.
 6|N "     H "       R       "  |6    The bag contains 38 tiles.
 7|t   '   A   B O G Y     '    |7    The clock is running.
 8|E     H Y O I D       '     =3D|8
 9|A   '   O F T   '       '    |9    Time penalties are not in effect.
10|U P     T "       "       "  |10   This game does not count for rating=

11|  L   W E N D       -        |11
12|J A D E S     '       -     '|12   Votes are due midnight EST,

13|  Z -       '   '       -    |13
14|  A       "       "       -  |14
15|=3D     '       =3D       '     =3D|15