From: "Mongo, Santamaria!" <icenine@panix.com>
Date: Mon, 16 Feb 1998 21:56:22 -0500 (EST)
Subject: Re: Consensus Game #1, Turn #7
Message-id: <Pine.SUN.3.94.980216210832.19704A-100000@panix2.panix.com>
From the desk of G.I. Joelgernotsonautthisweekend:
On Mon, 16 Feb 1998, Bob Lipton wrote:
I am so enamored of the ORA dump, however, that I propose B4 ORA for 15 points. The 9-point sacrifice (compared to the L1 plays) seems worth the improvement in leave. ELRT looks optimal in view of the 6 Es and Is and the 3 As and Os remaining. (Another E gives us the big ZEE play).
The 9-pt. sac is definitely not worth the screwed up leave. With the current pool, you couldn't pay me enough to part with that A, or keep the E! Also, you are willing to score 15 points this turn in the hope that holding the E will allow you to score 36 for a 2-tile play next turn -- that means in two turns you are scoring 51, while in two average turns, you may well expect your opponent to score 60 -- you're already behind by 57, how does this scenario help? Consider that after you play your two E's next turn, your rack will contain LRT and probably 2 I's, and how likely do you think you are to get back the bingo that you will still be behind by? Meanwhile, you play 5 tiles in two turns and opponent turns over a couple more and beats you to the X and the S. You lose ground for three full moves, even if you do get to play ZEE on the second, from a position where you are already down 57.
> a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o
> ----------------------------- Player Tiles Score Time
> 1|= ' U K =|1
> 2| - " N F E - |2 cgp AELORRT 213 ---
> 3| - C U l L I O N S |3 opp ------- 270 ---
> 4|M - I N T '|4
> 5|A C T E - |5 Waiting for cgp to play.
> 6|N " H " R " |6 The bag contains 31 tiles.
> 7|t ' A B O G Y ' |7 The clock is running.
> 8|E H Y O I D ' =|8
> 9|A ' O F T ' ' |9 Time penalties are not in effect.
>10|U P T " " " |10 This game does not count for ratings.
>11| L W E N D - |11
>12|J A D E S ' - '|12 Unseen tiles: AAA B D EEEEEE GG IIIIII
>13| Z - ' ' - |13 L M N OOO P Q RRR SS T U VV W X
>14| A " " - |14
>15|= ' = ' =|15 Votes are due midnight EST, 1998-02-28.
> -----------------------------
> a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o
There is defensive value in B4 ORA as well. The X is still out. We don't have it, and OPP's last play leaves open the possibility that he's had it for a turn or two. We don't need to leave plays like BORAX, IBEX, ILEX, APEX, REDOX, VARIX, etc. open for a 35+ play by the enemy. We're behind by enough as it is. I'm just saying, if anyone objects to ORA because we're likely to drop another 10-15 points behind as a result of the 9-point sacrifice, please consider that KORE/KART/KOLA could suffer the same fate. Voting for B4 ORA Bob Lipton l927
Defense my eye! If your opp. has the X, you have to expect him to score 30 points with it somewhere, and playing the A instead of the E is actually going to reduce your chances of drawing a playable bingo. (The A starts a bunch of bingos at 12g, and with a draw of EIS, EEG or EVO, to mention a few, will bingo big at o1 after KORE.) Also, after ORA, opp. doesn't need the X to gain ground on you, KIBE, KIVA, KEPI, KIER among others all increase his lead by at least the same number of points as you failed to score. KORE won't be as likely to cost us equity, because we have already banked the 9 points, and we are very likely to bingo in one of the next two turns, so even if opp. does get some of the X plays Blip talks of, our quick bingo will compensate enough to wipe out that big lead. You don't sac points to play defense when you are already behind -- only Steve Williams actually does that in real live games, and we all know what that's done to the New York City Champion of 20 years ago's rating, an approx. 2000 strength player has dropped all the way to the low 1500s.
On Mon, 16 Feb 1998 20:01:09 -0500, Dave Boys wrote: {big snip}
I am sticking with KORE for now, but I really like ORA as well. ORATE sucks. I think if we play ORATE it will take a miracle to win this game. there are 38 unseen tiles, if we save LR, we have to draw 5 and hope to avoid picking any of the crappy tiles that make up half the bag. LART is so much better than LR in this situation it's not even close. daveboys
Tho I disagree strongly with Dave's generous assessment of ORA, the rest of this paragraph says a mouthful, and expresses well my reasons for also...
... voting for KORE 1L (24). Joel Sherman, 20xx [at least until Danbury (aargh, I played weakly) is rated ;-( ]